Economic impact
Measured the way governments measure
Every indicator is defined, attributed to a specific engagement and subject to anti-double-counting rules before it is reported.
USTEDC Economic Impact Index
Nine indicators, published quarterly
The index turns the organization into a measurable economic engine. Every figure carries attribution rules, anti-double-counting controls and a verification source.
- 01Trade · USD
Trade facilitated
Invoiced value of shipments where USTEDC introduced, qualified or contracted the counterparty.
Verified by: Signed contracts + customs records
- 02Investment · USD
FDI facilitated
Announced and committed cross-border investment in projects USTEDC originated or structured.
Verified by: Investor filings + agency confirmation
- 03Employment · Headcount
Jobs created or supported
Direct payroll positions at supported facilities; indirect jobs reported separately, never merged.
Verified by: Employer payroll attestation
- 04Investment · Count
Factories established
Greenfield or brownfield production sites reaching operational status within the reporting period.
Verified by: Site permits + operating licence
- 05Market entry · Count
Turkish companies entering the U.S.
First commercial delivery, registered entity or distribution agreement in the U.S. market.
Verified by: Entity registration + first invoice
- 06Market entry · Count
U.S. companies entering Türkiye
First sourcing contract, joint venture or registered presence in Türkiye.
Verified by: Contract copy + trade registry
- 07Capital · USD
Capital deployed
Funds actually drawn through partner lenders, funds and export finance lines — commitments excluded.
Verified by: Lender disbursement statements
- 08Capital · Count / USD
M&A and JVs completed
Closed transactions only, counted at signing date with disclosed or estimated enterprise value.
Verified by: Closing documents
- 09Reach · Count
U.S. states participating
States with a signed cooperation memorandum or an active corridor programme.
Verified by: State agency agreements
Counting rules
- One transaction is counted once, under one indicator, in one reporting period.
- Attribution requires documentary evidence of USTEDC involvement before the deal closed.
- Pipeline, letters of intent and non-binding commitments are reported separately from results.
- Revisions to prior quarters are published with the reason for the change.
The index is a planned publication for the pilot period; no figures are reported until baselines and verification sources are in place.
Impact dashboard
Indicators reported each quarter
- Verified trade value
- $48B$100B
- Pilot phase (2026–28)Year 5 target
- Verified investment
- $3B$25B
- Pilot phase (2026–28)Year 5 target
- Jobs created or supported
- 9,500100,000
- Pilot phase (2026–28)Year 5 target
- Manufacturing & FDI projects
- 25250
- Pilot phase (2026–28)Year 5 target
- Export engagements
- 1001,000
- Pilot phase (2026–28)Year 5 target
- Import & sourcing engagements
- 40400
- Pilot phase (2026–28)Year 5 target
- M&A transactions
- 660
- Pilot phase (2026–28)Year 5 target
- Joint ventures
- 440
- Pilot phase (2026–28)Year 5 target
- SMEs supported
- 75750
- Pilot phase (2026–28)Year 5 target
- Institutional partnerships
- 50500
- Pilot phase (2026–28)Year 5 target
Left column is the verified pilot-phase commitment we are accountable for first; the right column is the Year 5 institutional plan reported each quarter on the impact dashboard. The 2026 baseline for annual bilateral activity is $38.4B (U.S. Census Bureau, goods and services).
Targets reflect the Year 5 institutional plan. Reported values are published only after verification against member documentation and official trade statistics.
Trade trajectory
U.S.–Türkiye goods trade and the bilateral objective
Latest reported
$32.6B2024
2032 objective
$100B2032
Required expansion
Total two-way goods trade, USD billions. Historical values from U.S. Census Bureau foreign-trade statistics; forward values reflect the bilateral $100B objective trajectory used for planning, not a forecast.
Supply-chain reallocation
China's U.S. shipments fell ~30% in 2025. That volume has to be sourced somewhere.
U.S. goods imports from China were about $308.4 billion in 2025 — roughly $130.4 billion, or 29.7%, below 2024. Türkiye shipped about $16.4 billion to the U.S. in the same period, so China still exports around 19× more. That gap is the opportunity, not the obstacle: American buyers are actively re-sourcing categories they can no longer run through China at acceptable cost or risk.
- $308.4B
- China → U.S. goods, 2025
- Down 29.7% (~$130.4B) from 2024.
- ~$16.4B
- Türkiye → U.S. goods, 2025
- China ships roughly 19× more.
- $3.1B
- 1% of China's U.S. volume
- Additional Türkiye→U.S. trade per year if captured.
- $15.4B
- 5% of China's U.S. volume
- Nearly a doubling of Türkiye's current U.S. exports.
USTEDC does not chase the whole China basket. We screen it for the categories where Türkiye holds a credible landed-cost, tariff, lead-time, quality or geopolitical-risk advantage, then build supplier shortlists, audit capacity and originate first orders in those categories only.
Figures are U.S. goods imports on a customs basis for 2025 as reported by USTR/U.S. Census Bureau. Capture scenarios (1% and 5%) are illustrative arithmetic on that base, not forecasts or commitments.
Market opportunity
Baseline versus objective
| Indicator | Baseline | Objective | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Two-way goods trade | ~$33B | $100B | U.S. Census Bureau |
| Services trade | ~$8B | $20B+ | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis |
| Turkish FDI stock in the U.S. | ~$3B | $25B | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis |
| Manufacturing & FDI projects | Fragmented | 250 | USTEDC institutional plan |
| Jobs created or supported | Not tracked | 100,000 | USTEDC institutional plan |
Baseline figures are approximate recent-year values compiled from U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, TurkStat and OECD sources.
Data & sources
Every figure, its source and its date
Statistics on this site are compiled from official statistical agencies. Each series below states the publishing body, the reference period and the table used.
Data last reviewed: 31 July 2026
| Series | Publisher | Reference period | Table |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S.–Türkiye goods trade | U.S. Census Bureau | Annual, 2019–2024 | Foreign Trade: Country Data (Türkiye) |
| Services trade | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis | Annual, latest available | International Services, Trade by Country |
| Turkish FDI stock in the U.S. | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis | Annual, latest available | Direct Investment by Country and Industry |
| Türkiye exports and imports | TurkStat | Monthly and annual series | Foreign Trade Statistics |
| Manufacturing and industrial capacity | OECD | Latest published indicators | OECD Data Explorer — Industry and Trade |
| Macroeconomic context | World Bank | Latest published indicators | World Development Indicators |
Figures are rounded for presentation. Forward-looking values are planning trajectories, not forecasts, and are labelled as objectives wherever they appear.
Methodology
Attribution and verification
- Each reported outcome is tied to a documented member engagement with a defined USTEDC role.
- Anti-double-counting rules prevent the same shipment, investment or transaction being reported twice.
- Trade and investment values are reconciled against official statistics before publication.
- Job figures distinguish created, retained and supported positions.
- Results are reviewed by the Independent Advisory Council and published quarterly.
Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau · U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · U.S. Department of Commerce · TurkStat · Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Trade · OECD · World Bank